Document Type : Original Research Paper

Authors

• Rahman Ahmadi ¹
• Rahim Dabiri ²
• Bijan Taheri ³

¹ Department of Mining Engineering, Imam Khomeini Internation University (IKIU), Iran, Qazvin

² Department of Geology, Ma.C., Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran

³ Department of Mining Engineering, University of Kashan

Abstract

This study applies risk analysis and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate sustainable mining development in four protected, restricted, and military areas of Qazvin Province. A sequential hybrid framework is used in which GIS–Fuzzy modelling provides mineral-prospectivity screening, AHP quantifies the relative importance of the retained decision criteria, and a semi-quantitative probability–impact matrix provides area-specific risk comparison. Mining conditions in Alamut, Bashgol, Tarom, and Artesh Lands were evaluated using expert judgments and Expert Choice, with the final comparison expressed as normalized incentive and limiting contributions. In the preliminary six-parameter influence assessment, environmental considerations had the highest influence (0.327), approximately 1.7 times the economic and legal/policy parameters (0.188 each) and approximately 3.3 times the three lower-weight parameters (0.099 each). In the reduced AHP model, Environmental, Security & Conflict also received the highest criterion weight (0.581). Artesh Lands showed the most favorable risk balance, Bashgol ranked second under conditional environmental controls, and Alamut and Tarom remained jointly least favorable because their retained criterion inputs were identical. The framework is intended as a strategic decision-support tool and does not replace environmental impact assessment or regulatory authorization.

Keywords

• Sustainable Development
• Mining
• Risk Analysis
• Effective Parameters
• Protected Areas

Main Subjects

• Mine Economic and Management