Estimation of the possible instability that may be encountered in the excavation slope(s) during the planning and application steps of the rock excavation processes is an important issue in geoengineering. In this paper, a modelling method is presented for assessing the probability of wedge failure involving new permanent or temporary slope(s) along the planned excavation direction. The geostructural rock slopes including wedge blocks are determined geometrically in the first step. Here, a structural data analysis system that includes a series of filterings, sortings, and linear equations used to reveal the necessary geometric conditions for the wedge form is developed and used. The second step involves the 3D visualization and Factor of Safety (FS) using the limit equilibrium analysis of wedges on both the actual and planned new excavation surfaces. The last step is the Monte Carlo simulation, which is used in assessing the instabilities on the actual and planned new excavation surfaces. These new slope surfaces that have not yet been excavated are called the virtual structures. As a result of this work, the mean and probabilistic FS variations in the planned excavation direction are obtained as profiles. We suggest the preliminary guidelines for the mean and probability of the wedge failure in the excavation direction. The model is tested on a motorway cut slope. The FS results obtained from the Monte Carlo simulation calculations are compared with the mean results and the changes are revealed with the reasons.